CIA /Oil Corps./Cheney ALL Linked to Afghan Pipeline; READ THIS! (english) by skatesnkis 10:47pm Thu Nov 15 '01 (Modified on 5:27am Fri Nov 16 '01)

"Meanwhile, a dozen US former high-ranking state officials like former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney ... are very active in the Caspian oil and gas projects. ... [C]overt CIA officers, some well-trained petroleum engineers, traveled through southern Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to sniff out potential oil reserves." CIVIL WAR: AN ECONOMIC DISASTER FOR AFGHANISTAN This fascinating paper (rewritten in 1999) by a corporate-oriented scholar reveals sordid details about "America's new war's" untold story, linking Cheney, the CIA and oil corporations, and clearly exposes the equation of the US "national interest" with OIL: ====================================== Neamatollah Nojumi Tufts University Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy This document was written on Sept 1998 and then revised it in the summer of 1999. Almost ten years ago, when the Soviet army pulled out of Afghanistan, one could see on the tired faces of men, women and children in Afghanistan the cheerful expressions for peace, security and prosperity. However, the eruption of civil war and its brutalities erased that cheerful expression from and violently destroyed the whatever remained of the country and nation after the Soviet invasion 1979-89. In 1996, an intra-governmental agreement was made between Turkmanistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan and CentGas, the oil consortium led by UNOCAL, a California-based international corporation, for the development of a gas and oil pipeline through Afghanistan. Many Afghans believed that this development would convince their political leaders who were engaged in armed conflicts to begin to approach a peaceful settlement. Instead, this proposed pipeline increased the competition between Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, in particular Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and as a result, the regional competition over the control and influence of the pipeline proposal fueled the civil war and altered the delicate balance of power in Afghanistan. The pipeline project is rooted in the burgeoning interest in those Central Asian countries that have vast natural resources well beyond their domestic needs. Vital to the economic and industrial development of these countries is their ability to export their natural resources to international markets. And, because these newly independent nations are landlocked, Afghanistan emerged as the quickest, shortest, and most economically efficient highway for Central Asian exports and imports.   According to the UNOCAL proposal, a 48-inch-diameter pipeline will extend 790 miles (1,271 km) to the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border, generally follow the Herat-to- Kandahar Road through Afghanistan, cross the Pakistan border in Quetta, and terminate in Multan. Later, another 400 miles of gas-line will connect Pakistan to India. The oil pipeline will build on the same route until Quetta, then it will extend to the port of Karachi on the Arabian Sea. The estimated cost of the project is US$1.9 billion for the portion from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and an additional US$600 million for the extension to India. Afghanistan can play a significant role in connecting Central Asia, in particular the Caspian resources, to international markets. "The Caspian is the center of the last great oil rush of this century, laps across a huge mine, liquid gold. Some 200 billion bbl., or 10% of the earth’s potential oil reserves, which cost at today’s prices up to US$4 trillion." Turkmenistan is ranked the fourth largest natural gas reserve in the world. The proposed pipeline would connect the Caspian Sea, Western Siberia, Kazakistan to Pakistan, India, and the Asian pacific countries. The existing pipeline which connects the Central Asian oil to the Novoressisk Russian port on the Black Sea does not have the capacity ever to increase oil production in the region. Further, using the Russian pipeline mixes the Central Asian oil with a low quality oil stream coming from Russia. Any reduction in the quality of the Central Asian oil, which contains high gravity and low sulfur, is an enormous loss for these countries. The high growth rate of the population in Pakistan and India and the industrial boom in the Asian Pacific region increased the demand for crude oil. This increase created a significant market for the Central Asian suppliers. According to UNOCAL studies, this demand will increase the exports of oil with a good price in the next 15 years. Therefore, traditional oil export by tanker-ships will be very limited. The tanker traffic in the Black Sea routes crossing the Bosphorus and the Baltic route via the Straits of Denmark is already near its limit. In this case, the proposed pipelines through Afghanistan and Pakistan would balance the traffic in the Black and Baltic Seas. The pipeline would also provide much greater financial resources for the Central Asian countries and a faster import for the Asian Pacific market. The Main Obstacle to the Implementation of this Project: The civil war in Afghanistan is the main obstacle which not only frustrates the oil consortiums, in particular UNOCAL, it also destroys a golden opportunity for the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan. Continued fighting between the Taliban and the opposition troops has been associated with those who are against the prosperity of Afghan nation. Because of this bloody armed conflict and power game, none of these groups has a practical proposal to achieve the pipeline project. Unfortunately, responses by these groups are loaded with politics, rather than efforts and ideas for long term reconstruction and economic development of the country. The pipeline project is one important opportunity for economic development. It will "deliver an estimated US$ 50 to US$ 100 million a year in transit fees to Afghanistan as well as provide(s) gas in Afghanistan itself." Additionally, the project will stimulate business, attract investments, reinforce regional cooperation, enhance trade and communication, employ thousands of local people, and improve living standards of the region. For Afghanistan, implementation of the pipelines would serve as a spring board to facilitate the country’s transition from a war economy to a productive, growing economy . Providing gas, a clean-burning energy for the Herat and Kandahar provinces, will help the small industries and improve the environment. A big portion of the population in these provinces heavily depends on wood fuel which has caused a gradual deforestation of the area. Using natural gas will save the green environment, and it will improve agricultural production. Also, there is a possibility that northern Afghanistan’s gas resources would be connected to the Turkmenistan pipeline via Uzbekistan, which could result in greater financial stability for Afghanistan. The prosperity of the pipeline project depends solely on an internationally recognizable, broad-based government in Afghanistan. The absence of such a government caused the international financial institutions, like the World Bank, to stop financing the project. Without such a financial resource, the completion of the pipelines would be just a dream. The position of the financial institutions has changed the position of UNOCAL. The latest UNOCAL official statements suggests, "UNOCAL will not conduct business with any party in Afghanistan until peace is achieved and a government recognized by international lending agencies is in place. We have neither signed nor negotiated any business deals with any faction within Afghanistan." According to the Center for Afghanistan Study at University of Nebraska, UNOCAL will stop funding the programs which train young Afghans to work in the construction of the pipelines in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Afghanistan observers state that Pakistani elements lobbying UNOCAL to stop funding this kind of program, because the Crescent Steel and Allied Products, Ltd., a Pakistani international corporation which has a share of 3.89% in the pipeline project will provide the skilled labor for the construction of the pipelines in Afghanistan. At the same time, there are many other circles in Washington, DC who try to gain the support of the Clinton Administration for the construction of a different route. Among others, Mr. Roger Tamraz, an influential and well connected diplomat whose 1996 contribution to the presidential campaign was challenged by the Senate is lobbying for the Caspian project. This project aims to run a pipeline through the Caspian Sea to connect Central Asia’s resources to Azerbaijan, and then via Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea. Mean while, a dozen US former high-ranking state officials like former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, former Treasure, Secretary Lloyd Bentsen, John Sununu, George Bush’s chief of staff, and former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski are very active in the Caspian oil and gas projects. Mr. Z. Brzezinski, a consultant for Amoco, "has long been a mentor to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Mr. Z. Brzezinski has criticized the White House for years that the U.S. was making a strategic mistake in paying so little attention to the new central Asian nations." In August 1997, Albright and her top senior State Department sat in a full-dress CIA briefing on the region. The CIA, was obligated to set up a special task force to monitor the region’s politics and wealth. Soon, covert CIA officers, some well-trained petroleum engineers, traveled through southern Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to sniff out potential oil reserves. When policy makers heard the agency’s report, Albright concluded that working to mold the area’s future was "one of the most exciting things that we can do." Washington wants the Caspian Sea natural resources to flow through many pipelines and via different directions to avoid a shut down by a country in the region. At this moment the export of oil is done largely through the Russian pipelines, but the U.S. supports the construction of the giant pipeline via Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea to minimize the Russian influence. Turkey is a U.S. ally and a NATO member; therefore the White House feels more secure.   The oil pipeline development is not an easy task for the U.S. and its allies in the region. Iran argues that running a pipeline via Iran to the Persian Gulf is the most efficient way, and the Iranian governmental circles try to lobby the project with the UNOCAL’s rival companies or gain the U.S. green light for recognition by international financial institutions. In his interview with Scott MacLeod in Tehran the Iranian adviser to the minister of petroleum, Mr. Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said, " We have our hands in the Caspian Sea and our feet in the Persian Gulf, the simplest outlet to this energy is to construct the pipeline via Iran." Also, Iran cites treaties with the Soviet Union dating back to 1921 and 1940 which declare the Caspian Sea a common lake between the two countries. Thus, in any oil development, Iran has to get 20% of the profits, and if any decision does not concern its interests, Iran will veto such a decision and consider it an illegal activity. It is not only the Iranian government that pushes the idea of constructing the pipeline via Iran, some oil companies also support this idea. For example, "a senior Western oil executive stated, "’We’d sign with the Iranians. In this part of the world, they are by far the most trustworthy partners for a pipeline deal. Terrorism? Who’s going to blow up their own pipeline?’" Three major factors played against the idea of connecting the Caspian gas and oil via Iran: 1) On April 1, 1998 more than 200 executives and experts from the region’s oil consortiums attended a conference in Almaty, capital of Kazakhstan. In this conference a French oil company cited its study on constructing a pipeline via Iran which cost the same as the one via Turkey. This study changed the attention from the north- south route to east-west via Turkey. 2) Azerbaijan President Heydar Aliyev was among the first regional leaders who thought the east-west line was more secure. In a joint communiqué with President Clinton, Niyazov, the Turkmenistan President affirmed that he was leaning toward an east-west gas and oil line under the Caspian Sea. This affirmation was a part of the U.S. plan which was pushed for a long time by many governmental and non-governmental lobbyists. 3) The United States diplomatic and official confrontation with Iran completed the circle against the idea of constructing a pipeline via Iran. Now, the White House is waiting to get the final word from the Baku-based consortiums who will have a huge conference in October 1998, to decide which route they should be support. Until October, between the oil companies, the regional countries and Washington, we will witness the most intense business-diplomatic activities in this century. The Afghan political leadership has to wake up from this frenzied animosity against one another, and open their eyes to the possibility of regional and international development. The Taliban and the opposition’s representatives in the United States are responsible for informing their leaders inside Afghanistan. The political leaders in Afghanistan should learn from the years of bloodshed and the destruction of their country that all the years of war and conflict have proved that solving problems through military activities is not possible. The loss of thousands of innocent young Afghans under the name of Talib and the thousands more under the name of Sarbaz in the killing field of civil war did not provide the leadership of Taliban and the opposition with what they were seeking. The chance for Afghanistan is very slim, and time is very short. Afghanistan not only does not have any representative in all of these crucial developments in the region, this country also does not have a voice. The neighboring countries do not have the responsibility and the legal right to represent Afghanistan. The Afghans must cooperate with each other in any possible way without the outside interfering.  It is correct that achieving peace in Afghanistan is not an easy task, but if the Afghans from abroad and inside the country put a cooperative effort together through publications, broadcasting, Internet sites and, in particular, intra-Afghan dialogue, the outcome will have an important impact on the process of peace in this war-ruined country. Many Afghanistan observers believe that if the Afghan leaders are able to reach a peaceful settlement, the chance for the construction of the pipelines via Afghanistan is great. The main reason is that the Afghan link is less expensive (compared to) the Iran and Turkey links. According to the French oil studies in the region, the construction of a pipeline via Iran will cost US$ 4 billion, and an east-west pipeline via Turkey has the same cost. Building the pipeline in either direction will take almost five years, which means the actual export will take place at the end of the year 2004. Additionally, the Turkey link will pass through the Turkish Kurdistan, which is under the influence of the Kurdistan Kommunist Party (KKP). Without an agreement and, cooperation of the KKP, the security of the pipeline via Turkey is very fragile. The influence of Iran and President Sadam Hussein among the Kurds in Iran and Iraq is obvious. Both of these governments are able to create serious obstacles to the security of the pipeline. Meanwhile, the Russian pipeline also runs through Chechnya, where the anti-Russian armed separatists are very active. These armed groups have the ability to cut off the pipeline at will.     In contrast, building the pipeline via Afghanistan will cost less than US$ 2 billion and take two years. If Afghans are able to achieve peace and a joint proposal for the pipeline by the end of 1998, the actual export of oil and gas would take place at the end of year 2000. In this case, the representative of the Afghan government would be able to participate in oil and gas development in the region. Then, he can assure the security of the project to the oil companies and the international lending institutions. The Afghan government can also bargain for a greater share in and benefit from this project. Because of the civil war in Afghanistan and the absence of an internationally recognized government, the oil companies do not have any other solution than to abandon Afghanistan and construct the Turkey link at a greater cost. It’s on the Afghan leaders outside and inside, in particular the Taliban and the opposition, to promote peace and allow people to form a mechanism that would enable them to establish a broad based, internationally recognized government. Achieving peace and the establishment of such a government is the only key that can open the door for the implementation of the pipeline project. This would also reduce the destructive interference of some governmental circles in neighboring countries. Indeed, if millions of innocent Afghans lost their lives in the two decades of wars, many more will lose their lives in the darkness of regional and international isolation from diseases, hunger and natural disasters. In this case, Afghanistan will remain a poor underdeveloped country for many more generations, and those who are responsible for the continuation of the civil war will be in the trial of history before god and our future generations. add your own comments